We said that the trains in each direction were spaced at ten-minute intervals, but we did not say how those intervals overlapped with each other. One possibility would be for the trains from each direction to arrive simultaneously. Then ten minutes later, two more trains would arrive simultaneously, one from each direction. In this case, Mr. Tsuru would have a hard time choosing.
Another possibility is that every five minutes a train would arrive, first from one direction, then from the other, again from the original direction, and so on. With this spacing, Mr. Tsuru, arriving at a random time at the station, would be equally likely to go in one direction or the other.
But what if a train arrives heading toward the red station, followed one minute later by a train heading toward the yellow station? Then nine minutes later, another train arrives headed toward the red station. This is ten minutes after the first red-bound train. Then a minute later a train headed toward the yellow station arrives. This is ten minutes after the first yellow-bound train. So, in each direction the spacing is every ten minutes, as we said, but for nine minutes out of ten, the next train will be headed toward the red station. With this spacing, Mr. Tsuru will be using the red station on the way home 90% of the time.
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